Post by nickd on Feb 21, 2012 21:31:27 GMT 1
The Coalition government's flagship WORK programme - DWP produces its first report February 21st 2012
Is the report an early sign of failure?
The DWP has released the very first and much awaited data sets of those referred and attached to the WORK programme. As with so many of these 'transparent' data sets, you need a magnifying glass to look for the information which really counts. I rather suspect that what we will hear in the days ahead will be the usual over egging of statistics as they get hailed as some kind of success story; - the detail tells us otherwise.
Remember all that blaze of publicity about the work-shy, the scroungers, all those long term incapacitated claimants who were 'faking' it? Remember how we were told they'd all be woken up to the ring a ding of 'alarm clock Britain'? How 75% of incapacitated claimant's weren't incapacitated at all?
So what we'd expect to see is Government's flagship WORK programme helping huge droves of long- term welfare dependants back into work wouldn't we? - well it's just not happening, no the WORK programme just isn't working. One of the specific objectives of the programme was too help long term incapacitated claimants back into work, so how do the figures bear this out?
Of the total 370,000 (more accurately 369,240) claimants quoted by the DWP to have been 'referred' to the Work programme (between 1st June 2011 and the end of October 2011) this is how the claimant figures work out. The first column are the number of claimants, the second are the percentages of the referred group and the third is the claimant group:
(A) 184,220 - 50 % - Jobseeker's Allowance claimants over 25
(B) 94,570 - 25.5 % - Jobseeker's Allowance early access
(C) 68,490 - 19 % - Jobseeker's Allowance claimants 18 - 24
(D) 16,280 - 4.5 % - Employment & Support Allowance new claimant groups
(E) 2,370 - 0.7 % - Employment & Support Allowance - volunteers
(F) 1,280 - 0.3 % - Jobseeker's Allowance - previous Incapacity benefit claimant
(G) 1,080 - 0.3 % - Incapacity Benefit - volunteers
(H) 950 - 0.2 % - Employment & Support Allowance - previous Incapacity Benefit
Total claimants 369,240 (percentages add to 101 % due to rounding)
The relevance of these figures
The very long term incapacitated will be reflected in groups (F) (G) and (H) - because they would have claimed (now phased out) Incapacity Benefit. Employment & Support Allowance was introduced in October 2008 and from then Incapacity Benefit become extinct for new claims). Some Incapacity Benefit cases will have been transferred over to Employment & Support Allowance and others will have claimed Jobseeker's Allowance. The Jobseeker's Allowance group who used to claim Incapacity Benefit have therefore been included as they will in all probability have had a long- term claim history.
The total numbers in these groups ( F - G - H) is just 3,110 claimants - less than 1% of real time long term incapacitated claimant are being referred to the WORK programme.
If you include all (D - E - F - G - H) Employment & Support Allowance claims, Incapacity Benefit and those on Jobseeker's Allowance who used to be an Incapacity Benefit claimant the total numbers of claimants is exceptionally low at just 21,960 or 6% of all claimants referred to the WORK programme.
These figures do not make good reading for Government or the WORK providers.
Not on target
"The programme was designed by the coalition to get up to 1 million long-term unemployed people back into work in the first two years. Ministers appointed 18 predominantly private corporations as "prime providers" to run the scheme in a series of regional contracts starting in 2011.
"Indicative" early data put out by providers earlier this month suggested 20% of work programme participants were being helped into a job, substantially less than the government's 40% target."
Provider discontent
"Kirsty McHugh, the chief executive of the Employment Related Services Association, which represents work programme prime providers and subcontractors, said that although it was early days, the combination of unexpectedly high volumes and the lack of ESA referrals was putting a "big stress" on her members.
Although no prime providers were reporting that they would not be able to cope, they were having to re-examine their business models, while charity subcontractors – many of whom are dependant on getting ESA clients referred to them – were being put in a vulnerable position, she said.
McHugh said the low numbers of ESA referrals meant that those people would not be able to "access the specialist support to find and sustain employment to which they are entitled".
McHugh's message in the light of this latest report is at distinct poles to the positive message she was giving earlier on in the month. yesminister.org.uk/2012/02/03/ersa-releases-early-indicative-performance-figures-for-the-work-programme/
Source: Guardian (excellent read)
www.guardian.co.uk/society/2012/feb/21/rise-unemployment-strain-work-programme?CMP=twt_gu
Claimant discontent
Well the best examples are real ones. Here's Hester's story, a 23 year old disabled young lady struggling her way through life. She wants to work but the DWP took nearly a year to sort out her appeal, I should know; - I brought it to a Tribunal and what's more got my client some coverage on television over how she was denied access to the WORK programme because the DWP are relentlessly refusing claimants their Employment & Support Allowance. It's legal aid funding which sorted it out; - government wants to take it away so people like Hester won't get any support in the appeals process either.
Read more: mylegal.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=frontline&action=display&thread=569
Hidden Figures
Mylegal research using official data from DWP/HMCTS for 2010/2011 and monthly averages derived from annual totals shows us that for Employment & Support Allowance for the period 1st June to end of October 2011.
82,250 - appeals were received by the Tribunals service
73,580 - appeals were 'disposed' of
52,950 - appeals resulted in a final hearing
19,591 - appeals (37% success rate) were found in the claimant's favour.
So what we know is of the 82,250 people who appealed for their Employment & Support Allowance only 52,950 ended up at a final hearing (where a decision is made) out of which 19,591 should all have been eligible for the WORK programme. But what of those who had their appeal disposed of or were still waiting for their appeals? Large numbers are getting caught up in an appeal vacuum where claimants aren't being referred to the WORK programme pending their appeals; - there being long delays because of huge numbers caught up in the appeals process.
Of those who had their appeal refused at a final hearing, how many then re-claimed Employment & Support Allowance or who had their entitlement confirmed without having to appeal?
Remember this is only Employment & Support Allowance we are dealing with here. Let's take a look at the Incapacity/Employment & Support Allowance claims figures in general (using official DWP date sources):
There were around 662 thousand people claiming Employment and Support Allowance at the end of May 2011.
The number of working age claimants of ESA and incapacity benefits totals 2.57 Million
So out of 2.57 million Incapacitated/ESA claimants only 21,960 (groups D - F - G - H) were referred to the WORK programme; - it's less than 1% (0.85 of 1% to be precise). The WORK programme is hardly hitting the target group is it?[/b]
An insider view
Don't just take my word for it, here's what ex - Serco big wig Richard Johnson says via Yes Minister web site:
Telling it like it is!
Richard Johnson unravells the mystery around the Work Programme…
He says… “DWP’s Performance report is hopelessly uninformative” In todays Guardian he has argued that ‘we‘.. ‘they‘ need to understand the cost of delivering the Work Programme thereby enabling the Commissioner to incentivise, and target assistance at, people furthest from the work place and to track and put a cap on profits.
Richard explains that without data about how many people have started in work and have stayed there, the report provides no meaningful insight into whether the Work Programme is working.
“The only reason we are not allowed to have these in the public domain is because the employment minister, Chris Grayling, has said in meetings with contractors that he does not want to provide Labour with ammunition to beat him up about his programme’s failure, in the same way he used to attack them insisting, in short, on putting his own political position ahead of the lives of hundreds of thousands of unemployed people.[/b]
yesminister.org.uk/2012/02/21/richard-johnson-throws-down-the-gauntlet-and-demistifies-the-mystery/
Points to consider
(1) The actual number of long term incapacitated claimants referred to the work programme is abysmally low when considering all the media hype over how this was going to be tackled by the programme. A total figure of 21,960 in 2.57 million incapacitated is exceptionally unimpressive. The true number of actual long term incapacitated is even less impressive at 3,110 claimants - it is a claimant group which is being barely touched.
(2) Providers will be concerned because it is the most difficult groups (long term incapacitated) which pays them a higher provider fee (up to £14,000 per person if they can get them in to sustainable work). Providers will lose interest if none of the referred groups are likely to net them a return.
(3) Is government avoiding the target long term incapacitated because it knows the difficulties in placements and thus is concentrating on shorter term JSA claimants just to get some 'good results' - isn't this leaving difficult to place groups out in the welfare wilderness even longer - just as government blamed the previous administration for not tackling the problem?
(4) Is government failing to tackle hard to reach groups because it has committed itself to high 'payment upon result' provider fees which it won't be able to afford?
(5) Is government placing large numbers of un-assessed claimants in the appeals process as a way of keeping costs down?
Research
Link to DWP 2011 statistics
research.dwp.gov.uk/asd/asd1/stats_summary/stats_summary_nov11.pdf
research.dwp.gov.uk/asd/asd1/work_programme/wp_release_feb12.pdf
Is the report an early sign of failure?
The DWP has released the very first and much awaited data sets of those referred and attached to the WORK programme. As with so many of these 'transparent' data sets, you need a magnifying glass to look for the information which really counts. I rather suspect that what we will hear in the days ahead will be the usual over egging of statistics as they get hailed as some kind of success story; - the detail tells us otherwise.
Remember all that blaze of publicity about the work-shy, the scroungers, all those long term incapacitated claimants who were 'faking' it? Remember how we were told they'd all be woken up to the ring a ding of 'alarm clock Britain'? How 75% of incapacitated claimant's weren't incapacitated at all?
So what we'd expect to see is Government's flagship WORK programme helping huge droves of long- term welfare dependants back into work wouldn't we? - well it's just not happening, no the WORK programme just isn't working. One of the specific objectives of the programme was too help long term incapacitated claimants back into work, so how do the figures bear this out?
Of the total 370,000 (more accurately 369,240) claimants quoted by the DWP to have been 'referred' to the Work programme (between 1st June 2011 and the end of October 2011) this is how the claimant figures work out. The first column are the number of claimants, the second are the percentages of the referred group and the third is the claimant group:
(A) 184,220 - 50 % - Jobseeker's Allowance claimants over 25
(B) 94,570 - 25.5 % - Jobseeker's Allowance early access
(C) 68,490 - 19 % - Jobseeker's Allowance claimants 18 - 24
(D) 16,280 - 4.5 % - Employment & Support Allowance new claimant groups
(E) 2,370 - 0.7 % - Employment & Support Allowance - volunteers
(F) 1,280 - 0.3 % - Jobseeker's Allowance - previous Incapacity benefit claimant
(G) 1,080 - 0.3 % - Incapacity Benefit - volunteers
(H) 950 - 0.2 % - Employment & Support Allowance - previous Incapacity Benefit
Total claimants 369,240 (percentages add to 101 % due to rounding)
The relevance of these figures
The very long term incapacitated will be reflected in groups (F) (G) and (H) - because they would have claimed (now phased out) Incapacity Benefit. Employment & Support Allowance was introduced in October 2008 and from then Incapacity Benefit become extinct for new claims). Some Incapacity Benefit cases will have been transferred over to Employment & Support Allowance and others will have claimed Jobseeker's Allowance. The Jobseeker's Allowance group who used to claim Incapacity Benefit have therefore been included as they will in all probability have had a long- term claim history.
The total numbers in these groups ( F - G - H) is just 3,110 claimants - less than 1% of real time long term incapacitated claimant are being referred to the WORK programme.
If you include all (D - E - F - G - H) Employment & Support Allowance claims, Incapacity Benefit and those on Jobseeker's Allowance who used to be an Incapacity Benefit claimant the total numbers of claimants is exceptionally low at just 21,960 or 6% of all claimants referred to the WORK programme.
These figures do not make good reading for Government or the WORK providers.
Not on target
"The programme was designed by the coalition to get up to 1 million long-term unemployed people back into work in the first two years. Ministers appointed 18 predominantly private corporations as "prime providers" to run the scheme in a series of regional contracts starting in 2011.
"Indicative" early data put out by providers earlier this month suggested 20% of work programme participants were being helped into a job, substantially less than the government's 40% target."
Provider discontent
"Kirsty McHugh, the chief executive of the Employment Related Services Association, which represents work programme prime providers and subcontractors, said that although it was early days, the combination of unexpectedly high volumes and the lack of ESA referrals was putting a "big stress" on her members.
Although no prime providers were reporting that they would not be able to cope, they were having to re-examine their business models, while charity subcontractors – many of whom are dependant on getting ESA clients referred to them – were being put in a vulnerable position, she said.
McHugh said the low numbers of ESA referrals meant that those people would not be able to "access the specialist support to find and sustain employment to which they are entitled".
McHugh's message in the light of this latest report is at distinct poles to the positive message she was giving earlier on in the month. yesminister.org.uk/2012/02/03/ersa-releases-early-indicative-performance-figures-for-the-work-programme/
Source: Guardian (excellent read)
www.guardian.co.uk/society/2012/feb/21/rise-unemployment-strain-work-programme?CMP=twt_gu
Claimant discontent
Well the best examples are real ones. Here's Hester's story, a 23 year old disabled young lady struggling her way through life. She wants to work but the DWP took nearly a year to sort out her appeal, I should know; - I brought it to a Tribunal and what's more got my client some coverage on television over how she was denied access to the WORK programme because the DWP are relentlessly refusing claimants their Employment & Support Allowance. It's legal aid funding which sorted it out; - government wants to take it away so people like Hester won't get any support in the appeals process either.
Read more: mylegal.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=frontline&action=display&thread=569
Hidden Figures
Mylegal research using official data from DWP/HMCTS for 2010/2011 and monthly averages derived from annual totals shows us that for Employment & Support Allowance for the period 1st June to end of October 2011.
82,250 - appeals were received by the Tribunals service
73,580 - appeals were 'disposed' of
52,950 - appeals resulted in a final hearing
19,591 - appeals (37% success rate) were found in the claimant's favour.
So what we know is of the 82,250 people who appealed for their Employment & Support Allowance only 52,950 ended up at a final hearing (where a decision is made) out of which 19,591 should all have been eligible for the WORK programme. But what of those who had their appeal disposed of or were still waiting for their appeals? Large numbers are getting caught up in an appeal vacuum where claimants aren't being referred to the WORK programme pending their appeals; - there being long delays because of huge numbers caught up in the appeals process.
Of those who had their appeal refused at a final hearing, how many then re-claimed Employment & Support Allowance or who had their entitlement confirmed without having to appeal?
Remember this is only Employment & Support Allowance we are dealing with here. Let's take a look at the Incapacity/Employment & Support Allowance claims figures in general (using official DWP date sources):
There were around 662 thousand people claiming Employment and Support Allowance at the end of May 2011.
The number of working age claimants of ESA and incapacity benefits totals 2.57 Million
So out of 2.57 million Incapacitated/ESA claimants only 21,960 (groups D - F - G - H) were referred to the WORK programme; - it's less than 1% (0.85 of 1% to be precise). The WORK programme is hardly hitting the target group is it?[/b]
An insider view
Don't just take my word for it, here's what ex - Serco big wig Richard Johnson says via Yes Minister web site:
Telling it like it is!
Richard Johnson unravells the mystery around the Work Programme…
He says… “DWP’s Performance report is hopelessly uninformative” In todays Guardian he has argued that ‘we‘.. ‘they‘ need to understand the cost of delivering the Work Programme thereby enabling the Commissioner to incentivise, and target assistance at, people furthest from the work place and to track and put a cap on profits.
Richard explains that without data about how many people have started in work and have stayed there, the report provides no meaningful insight into whether the Work Programme is working.
“The only reason we are not allowed to have these in the public domain is because the employment minister, Chris Grayling, has said in meetings with contractors that he does not want to provide Labour with ammunition to beat him up about his programme’s failure, in the same way he used to attack them insisting, in short, on putting his own political position ahead of the lives of hundreds of thousands of unemployed people.[/b]
yesminister.org.uk/2012/02/21/richard-johnson-throws-down-the-gauntlet-and-demistifies-the-mystery/
Points to consider
(1) The actual number of long term incapacitated claimants referred to the work programme is abysmally low when considering all the media hype over how this was going to be tackled by the programme. A total figure of 21,960 in 2.57 million incapacitated is exceptionally unimpressive. The true number of actual long term incapacitated is even less impressive at 3,110 claimants - it is a claimant group which is being barely touched.
(2) Providers will be concerned because it is the most difficult groups (long term incapacitated) which pays them a higher provider fee (up to £14,000 per person if they can get them in to sustainable work). Providers will lose interest if none of the referred groups are likely to net them a return.
(3) Is government avoiding the target long term incapacitated because it knows the difficulties in placements and thus is concentrating on shorter term JSA claimants just to get some 'good results' - isn't this leaving difficult to place groups out in the welfare wilderness even longer - just as government blamed the previous administration for not tackling the problem?
(4) Is government failing to tackle hard to reach groups because it has committed itself to high 'payment upon result' provider fees which it won't be able to afford?
(5) Is government placing large numbers of un-assessed claimants in the appeals process as a way of keeping costs down?
Research
Link to DWP 2011 statistics
research.dwp.gov.uk/asd/asd1/stats_summary/stats_summary_nov11.pdf
research.dwp.gov.uk/asd/asd1/work_programme/wp_release_feb12.pdf