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Post by nickd on Nov 17, 2012 9:48:48 GMT 1
Are we about to burst the DWP's hidden bubble? 424,170 claimants in the 'assessment phase' [/b]
The DWP & Ministry of Justice throughout the pre-enactment stages of both the welfare reform and legal aid, sentencing & punishment of offender's bill (LASBO) consistently reported that the number of appeals for Employment & Support Allowance was falling; I have to confess I never believed a word of it. Yes it's true that the numbers of appeals received at the HMCTS Tribunals had fallen from a record high of 197,400 in 2010/2011 to 181,100 but these are only receipts of those which the DWP has dispatched to the Tribunal.
They're not so keen to tell you that now the dust has settled on the welfare and legal aid reforms, the floodgates are once again open with appeals on the rise; this time by a massive 40% according to HMCTS for the first quarters of 2012/2013.
You can refer to an article on Mylegal where I reported on the appeal statistical 'spin' by the MOJ at the time. From which you may note no less than 194,200 cases were 'outstanding' in 2010/2011 which had reduced to 145,200 by 2011/2012. HMCTS has increased the number of judicial sitting days from 47,900 in 2008/2009 to 88,700 in 2011/2012 to cope with the escalating number of appeals. The accent at HMCTS was on disposing of the cases which had built up rather than dealing with even more new 'receipts'.
Employment & Support Allowance is the first benefit of its kind to have an 'assessment phase'. The numbers 'awaiting assessment' have been consistently under - quoted by ministers who continually refer to limited data sets relating to far from the overall number of claimants who have been subject to DWP and Atos assessment. On Mylegal a full report into incapacity benefits & Employment & Support Allowance has been prepared which deals with all the complexities of the DWP assessing 1.5 million claimants a year with 740,000 Atos assessments per year. You can refer to the evidence given to Parliament by Permanent Secretary Robert Devereux which backs up these figures.
With thousands upon thousands of assessments being conducted by both the DWP and Atos it's plainly obvious that there is a danger of the numbers of claimants awaiting assessments getting out of control and that is what I contend has clearly happened here. What's more we could be looking at more than the 424,170 assessment phase claimants recorded in February 2012. A Parliamentary note which you can access using the link here shows the figure was 401,100 in November 2011 so we know it's not falling.
The figure could be over half a million; here's how..
In the course of preparing a batch of appeal cases which I'm working on I picked out six of the six Employment & Support Allowance cases which are coming up for hearing in the near future. Take a look at the time they've taken to come up for appeal but also note the important differences between the IB to ESA conversion cases and the new ESA claim cases, note in particular how the commencement of the 'assessment phase' is very different in the 4 conversion cases than it is to the 2 new claim cases:
6 real life appeal cases
4 IB to ESA Conversion cases
(1) Mrs O
Sent conversion notice -19/10/2011 Examined by ATOS - 06/03/2012 DWP make conversion decision - 15/03/2012 - placed in to 'Assessment phase' HMCTS Tribunal hearing listed for hearing - 21/11/2012 Total waiting time - 13 months +
(2) Mr J Sent conversion notice - 22/11/2011 Examined by ATOS - 28/03/2012 DWP make conversion decision - 17/04/2012 - placed in to 'Assessment phase' HMCTS Tribunal hearing listed for hearing - 26/11/2012 Total waiting time - 12 months +
(3) Mr H
Sent conversion notice - 22/11/2011 Examined by ATOS - 23/03/2012 DWP make conversion decision - 23/04/2012 - placed in to 'Assessment phase' HMCTS Tribunal hearing listed for hearing - 28/11/2012 Total waiting time - 12 months +
(4) Mr D
Sent conversion notice - 10/11/2011 Examined by ATOS - 23/02/2012 DWP make conversion decision - 08/03/2012 - placed in to 'Assessment phase' HMCTS Tribunal hearing listed for hearing - 26/11/2012 Total waiting time - 12 months +
2 ESA New claim cases
(5) Mrs N
First applied - 11/01/2012 - placed in to 'Assessment phase' Examined by ATOS - 11/05/2012 DWP make decision - 26/05/2012 HMCTS Tribunal hearing listed for hearing - 07/12/2012 Total waiting time - 11 months +
(6) Mr W
First applied - 01/09/2011 - placed in to 'Assessment phase' Examined by ATOS - 27/04/2012 DWP make decision - 10/05/2012 HMCTS Tribunal hearing listed for hearing - 07/12/2011 Total waiting time - 15 months +[/u][/i] From the above six cases you will see how five cases have been waiting for a whole year before coming up for an appeal hearing - one case taking longer than 15 months! In the conversion cases you will see how in say Mr O's case he first entered the conversion phase on the 19/10/2011, was then examined by Atos on the 06/03/2012 before a 'conversion decision' was eventually made on the 15/03/2012. Thus in his case he has spent almost five months in the conversion phase and only enters his 'assessment phase' on the 15th March 2012 with a further wait of over 8 months before his appeal comes up - it's an absolute outrage that people are being kept waiting so long. Let's take a look at how these conversion cases go missing from the mainstream publication of reassessment statistics: Missing data [/b]. Which is surprising because this is the statistical data set which relates to claimants undergoing reassessment from their incapacity benefits over to Employment and Support Allowance. By clicking the link you will see the figure of 424,170 relating to the overall number of assessments live as of February 2012; you will also see how it is broken down: - 370,470 claimants who are 'non incapacity benefit reassessment'
And
- 53,700 'incapacity benefit reassessment' cases.
[/size][/b][/i] [/li][/ul] This completely backs up my point over how thousands of incapacity benefit reassessments are not being tracked in the figures available on the DWP data sets. The 53,700 figure for 'incapacity benefit reassessments' only refers to those who have appealed. It will not for instance include any of the 4 conversion cases which I have cited from when the four claimants were sent their conversion notice. The four claimants which I have cited will not appear as an 'assessment phase' statistic until such times as they they get their conversion decision and appeal against it. Thus in Mr O's case all the time he spends in the conversion phase from the 19/10/2011 to the 15/03/2012 is not counted as assessment despite him being assessed by Atos during what is quite obviously part of the overall assessment process. The statistical guidance confirms this: "IB reassessed claims shown on ESA in the Assessment phase are those found fit for work and are under appeal."With the DWP proudly proclaiming how it's assessing incapacity benefit claimants at an incredible rate of 11,000 per week (about 47,000 per calendar month) since March 2011; a figure of 53,700 in the assessment phase just doesn't stack up especially when you compare it against the 370,470 in the 'non - incapacity' groups. There must be literally thousands who are in the conversion phase who are not appearing in the Employment & Support Allowance reassessment statistics. They are not identifiable within the following claimant count but they form part of the incapacity benefits & Severe Disablement Allowance (February 2012) statistics (just click to view): Which is shocking because they should be readily identifiable; they are within the statistics but none of the thousands of incapacity benefits claimants going through the DWP's conversion phase will be recognisable within the above statistics despite them being subject to the rigours of form ESA filling and thousands of Atos assessments which fill them with absolute fear. They appear merely because the DWP has to track the claimants they pay; they seemingly don't keep tabs on the true status of their claim within the reassessment programme. But it gets worse, much worse. Now check this out [/center] The DWP numbers which don't add up [/size][/b] + [/b]. Which = 2,593,860
Right? [/size] According to the National Office of Statistics... Why is this of major significance?
See my next post.... [/size]
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Post by nickd on Nov 17, 2012 16:52:10 GMT 1
Why numbers are all important In the Coalition's assessment game
Numbers are everything Each single statistic in this reassessment programme cost this government cash. It's cash which this Coalition just doesn't want to spend on welfare; particularly on the recipients of welfare - the 'claimants' - the dreadful benefit claimant which is seen by this government as someone who should be standing on their own two feet and getting on with paving their own way in life rather than relying 'on others' to support them - that's the thrust of the government line. All that matters in this wretched 'reassessment' programme are numbers, although don't be fooled in to thinking this is to do with reducing the numbers - it's just a re-shuffling of numbers in the hope that know one is looking - but hey. who's counting?
This isn't about another nutty professor Harrington review, or even about the escalating number of appeals, nor is it about being fair, it's definitely not about putting the sick back to work; it's just about the money. It's money which this government would much rather put in the pockets of large firms like Atos, it doesn't matter how rubbish they may be at assessing or reassessing or re - re assessing those who have been assessed many times before. All that matters is pumping cash which could have been more properly spent on constructive welfare reform into the rapidly bloating private sector, the sector which thrives off the misery of others - a misery which is felt to be a price worth paying. At the end of the day those who dictate these reforms aren't going to suffer any misery are they?
I rather suspect though with their links to the private sector they may well reap a few rewards.
The cost of all those Atos medicals, the cost of all the computer programmes which allegedly 'track' the claimant from his or her sickbed to the workplace, the billions which are poured in to the Work Programme on an absurd pretence that they will 'help people in to work' are all an utter farce. It's all a pretence, a sham, a wicked lie, a distortion, a fix, it's just about throwing cash at the private sector because this is a government which gets drunk on the belief that the private sector will deliver us what Osborne prays for - 'economic growth'.
The claimant is sadly an irrelevance, an irrelevance which has become a nuisance - a big nuisance because each claimant is a number and the numbers aren't looking good. IDS knows it, so do all the others, the numbers are catching up on them and they're at risk of being caught out.
Us 'social do-gooder's' all know that each claimant statistic is a person, we know they're not just 'claimants' or numbers in some statistical 'cohort' - but do they care? I'm sorry to break it to anyone who thinks these reforms cater for compassion; the reality is the DWP just acts on orders from a higher place, a higher place which doesn't do 'compassion'. Osborne has his hand on the tiller, he's the man who sets IDS his 'departmental expenditure limits' - his budgets just don't cater for compassion - that's the reality.
Do not think for one minute that these reforms are about recognising the needs of the people who this reassessment programme should be helping. If government really really wanted to help the incapacitated and disabled in to work it would never have started off on such an acute attack on people it hadn't even so much as assessed.
If government wanted to help people in to work it would be embracing Employment and 'Support' Allowance with open arms; in truth it can't afford to offer the support it promises. That's why the Work Programme's in such a mess, it's the programme which does absolutely nothing to help those with an incapacity - just check the figures and you'll see. Employment & Support Allowance is meant to be a vehicle by which those who have a limitation are conveyed in to the work programme; the conveyor belt has jammed - the system has stopped before it even got started.
This is the government which got it wrong from the word go. It did so by telling everyone what has transpired to be an absolute lie.
The coalition's public pledge
What a stupid idea it was to go telling everyone that 75% on the sick were faking their claims. It's created a hole which this government is squirming to get out of but can't. It was a pathetic and lazy attempt to win the trust of voters. Voters who in truth are far from fans of any of the major political parties - let's not forget this government only got in by forging a dodgy alliance with the Liberals because despite all the unpopularity of Labour in 2010 the polls showed little enthusiasm for Cameron.
That's why convincing floating voter's was a key weapon in making sure the floaters would look to this government to 'fix the sick'. The plan was to convince the public 75% on the sick were lazy layabouts - they needed to gauge the reaction from the public to see how far they could go.
Regrettably far too few spoke up on behalf of those they should have been protecting. Major charities were more pre-occupied with securing funds for their own futures than they were in defending the scrounger.
So we've ended up with a wicked government which has falsely promoted itself as the one which will for once and for all fix welfare; its starting point was to make out it could tackle what it views as the systemic problem of 2.6 million people languishing on benefits in some life - style which is perceived to be 'cushy'.
IDS, Grayling, Freud, Miller, Cameron, Hoban and co would have you believe they are some kind of miracle cure for those who have grown too fond of a 'life - time on benefits' - they see themselves as some kind of crack team which is going to sort it out for the good of the country, for the good of those who have to get up and go to work every morning whilst their neighbour lays in bed with the curtains drawn pretending to be ill. This is the government which the nation has seemingly trusted ( a point which in itself is open to debate) with the task of dealing with a Broken Britain where far too many lounge around 'on the sick'.
However the numbers are exposing this government as the real fakers.
That's why all these numbers are important because whilst government continues to tell you what they think the voters want to hear, it is the figures which form the evidence over how well their reforms are actually working. What government knows is that in 2015 people will be judging them on welfare probably as much as they will be on the economy.
The trouble which this government has (and they know it) is the numbers are going to give the game away. They have a plan to make sure this can't happen.
They've come up with a corker - if it wasn't so evil it would be clever.
Playing with numbers
The figures I have looked at so far affirm my honest belief that the incapacity benefit reassessment programme is in absolute chaos; what we are seeing is just out and out reckless reform. We have the figures I left you with in my previous post to consider. The higher one of 2,593,860 isn't my own. It's a combination of two sets of DWP data relating to every single person claiming an incapacity benefit of some kind; be it Incapacity Benefit, Severe Disablement Allowance, incapacity related Income Support or Employment & Support Allowance. Because the tables are linked to the payments made by the DWP they should represent an accurate data source. Both tables relate to February 2012.
The DWP continually rely on much smaller statistics to put you off the scent.
It's what this government does best, it 'cherry picks' a carefully selected data set until it finds one which supports the headlines it wants you believe. The smaller 'sub tables' only give you a carefully worked out proportion of the overall data. They don't give you the full figures showing you how many are yet to be assessed or the figures once they have been properly adjusted to take account of tribunal results. These data sets lag behind and can never be properly reconciled with the 'real' results because it's taking months before the real results are known.
They just cheat numbers, in the case of the two 'big' numbers in the preceding post, Hoban went for the smaller of the two larger claimant count figures. Then he quoted 'fit for work' percentages from a small data set which only related to 3 months from December 2011 to February 2012.
The overall claimant count is the one to watch.
Never mind the smaller numbers, keep your eye on the ones that really matter.
You can't argue with the overall claimant. It's the figure which always highlights how well the whole programme is working. What's the point in analysing say the incapacity figures for a reduction if you haven't got your eye on the look out for a corresponding increase in ESA or even JSA claims?
Here's how Mr Hoban recently manipulated the data:
He used a figure of 2,557,700 taken from the Office of National Statistics (ONS) rather than his own Department's data which shows a figure of 2,593,860 because his own department's figure was higher; they both relate to February 2012. The ONS figures were recently relied upon by the Employment Minister Mr Mark Hoban who went on to tell us all how well his government's reforms were working. If Mr Hoban was Pinocchio he would have been caught out by his extending nose in the a recent DWP press release. If they were doing well on proving 75% of those on the sick he would have been the first to say so; he would have done so in a blaze of publicity. Instead he came back with a a misguided proclamation that 'one third were fit for work, it should be read as a huge shift from earlier claims that over 75% were 'faking it.
He was recently forced to admit that 64% were entitled to their benefits but he used the worst data set to tell you so and didn't relate it to appeal results from the Tribunals which would have put the figure at nearer 75%. This percentage came from the three months I referred to earlier.
That's why Mr Hoban and co have changed their tune of late, they've now started to accept that some of those on the sick 'want to work'. They've toned down their spurious claims; their press release bears a somewhat pathetic reference amongst the small print to a very muted claim on tackling the numbers on incapacity benefit:
"In the year to February 2012, the number claiming incapacity benefits fell 21,000 to 2.56 million".
How singularly unimpressive.
Millions (and it is millions of grossly expensive not too mention widely criticised assessments) and a piffling reduction of just 30,000! - the average Tory voter expecting 75% to be booted off the sick will be mighty let down if they realised these are the numbers we are really seeing. I rather suspect that these figures won't make the headlines until nearer to the run up of the next general election in 2015.
I totally get the low reduction figure because the claimant count now includes a large percentage of claimants who can do some work with appropriate levels of support. This is the 'work related activity group'. The government now realises how ESA works. In many respects they're too late because they've already built their voter's hopes up. They'll find it difficult back tracking on their previous media fuelled message which told us all that three quarters on benefits were 'scroungers'. How can they now change their message by telling benefit bashing voter's they now have to 'support' those they once labelled fakers? They made a rod for their own back with that claim and I'm glad it's come back to haunt them.
You can see why the DWP relied upon the ONS figures rather than the figures held within their own Department's payment data tables. Hoban wouldn't have dared to use the DWP's data - to do so would have have totally wiped out his claim on the unimpressive reduction of a mere 21,000 in the number of incapacitated claimants. Imagine what it would sound like if it got out that there has hardly been a reduction in the overall numbers claiming - the benefit bashing public would have had a fit!
It's the big numbers which show you how it's failing
The real numbers to watch out for are the bigger and more important ones at play here. So let's talk 'real' numbers; to be kind (I'm feeling charitable) to the DWP we'll go so far as to use the lower ONS figures; it makes little difference they're all equally damning to this disastrous incapacity benefit reassessment programme. Let's go with the ONS figure for February 2012 and you will see what I mean:
Total incapacity claims (all)
February 2012 - 2,578,700
Now, let's wind the clock back to August 2008, two months before the start of Employment & Support Allowance in late October. Back then the figure was:
August 2008 - 2,590,600
The long and short of it is that despite all the grief associated with Employment & Support Allowance, the 1.5 million DWP assessments a year quoted before Parliament, the 740,000 yearly Atos assessments reported before the Public Accounts committee, all the stress caused to claimants, all the appeals, all the millions of pounds spent on the whole programme, all it has achieved is a resounding zilch:
These costly reassessments have achieved a reduction of just 32,900 (1%) fewer claimants in fours years
99% still on incapacity benefits in 2012 when compared with 2008
A figure which can't possibly relate to 75% being 'fit for work'.
Don't take my word for it, check out the figures:
2,590,600 ----- 2008-Aug 2,605,500 ----- 2008-Nov 2,603,500 ----- 2009-Feb 2,621,400 ----- 2009-May 2,632,700 ----- 2009-Aug 2,618,400 ----- 2009-Nov 2,614,800 ----- 2010-Feb 2,613,100 ----- 2010-May 2,606,600 ----- 2010-Aug 2,586,400 ----- 2010-Nov 2,578,700 ----- 2011- Feb 2,570,200 ----- 2011-May 2,582,200 ----- 2011 Aug 2,575,600 ----- 2011 Nov 2,557,700 ----- 2012 Feb |
[/color][/b] [/td][/tr][/table] [/center] Even the most intensive period of activity with incapacity benefits conversions to Employment & Support Allowance from March 2011 (at the rate of 11,000 assessments a week) makes very little difference. From 2,578,700 claimants in February 2011 to 2,557,700 claimants in February 2012 there has been a reduction of only 21,000 claimants. The claimant count has only reduced over a whole year of relentless assessment by just short of the number of claimants they would assess in two weeks at the DWP. But now for the next bit of the jigsaw.... It's nothing short of a scam! What many don't realise is that the 425,000 in the assessment phase are effectively hidden from the day to day statistics which parliamentarians refer to, the assessment phase claimant figure only appears to come up in the claimant count linked to the DWP's payment data tables. It means the government knows all these claimants awaiting assessment are there but not in such a way that you will see - if you see what I mean. With 425,000 claimants awaiting assessment and a good few more elsewhere in the conversion phases we have a good half a million going through assessment and no one is saying a single word about it - it's nothing short of a national outrage! Nearly half a million benefit claimants waiting to be assessed? You know why? I'll lay good money on it that many of the 425,000 to 500,000 stuck in assessment phase form a good proportion of those who have had their Employment & Support Allowance turned down on the grounds that they are purportedly 'fit for work'. Except they're not, you know it and so do the DWP. Why? Because the last place this government wants them is here: The Jobcentres know these people are too ill to work & that's why they tell them to
" re-claim Employment & Support Allowance "
The last thing this government needs is more on the dole. Think about it? This is a government which is telling us all it's 'growth' plans are working, a key indicator on economic recovery is a fall in unemployment, so why on earth is government going to throw everyone off their incapacity benefits and straight on to the dole? The jobseeker queue would grow far too rapidly and cause government untold embarrassment, so it neatly parks people in the assessment phase where they won't officially be counted as sick or on the dole. The rules allow it because claimants can reclaim after being disallowed their Employment & Support Allowance; they just need to wait a few months - hardly a problem given how long the assessment phase drags on for. It's a neat solution to an age old problem - but it gets better, for there is a second chapter in this scam and what's more not too many seem to have realised what it is. I'll tell you in the next week. For now I'll just leave you with another 'beneficial' aspect of the assessment phase, it's only part of the bigger scam though. Here it is: [/size] In the next post find out how 425,000 claimants are being ripped off by the DWP! ....
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Post by nickd on Nov 17, 2012 23:21:08 GMT 1
425,000 benefits claimants 'Cheated & Short - Changed'
It's Outrageous! I have already shown you examples of people waiting for a year for their appeals to come up, in some cases it could be more and others it could be less. The ESA regulations are quite clear that claimants should be assessed within 13 weeks of making their claim. For those who aren't or who disagree with their assessment result and need to go on and appeal they will only get (in the case of a single claimant aged 25 +) their basic allowance of £71 per week paid at the 'assessment rate'.
Some will go and have their award confirmed and from then on they will get additional amounts included in their benefits:
An extra £28.15 for those in the 'Work Related Activity Group'.
An extra £34.05 for those in the 'Support Group'.
It gets paid back to you if you win your appeal or if the assessment eventually confirms that you are entitled, but it could take months before a claimant gets their right amount. New claimants for Employment & Support will very rarely have their assessment completed with the first 13 weeks and so will not only get the basic amount for the initial 13 weeks but for considerably longer where the assessment phase is protracted.
Take the case of a claimant who has to wait 9 months in the assessment phase - 6 months beyond when they should have been assessed. They will go without £731.90 until their award is decided.
Think about how much government is 'saving' by keeping people in the assessment phase?
Let's say half of our 425,000 (212,500) have to wait an extra 6 months before their award is decided, either by the DWP or at a Tribunal. Here's how much government avoids paying out for those six months:(212,500 * £731.90)
[£155,528,750.00]
£155 million pounds! In the case of those who should be in the support group or who have their pre-existing incapacity benefits terminated before they can appeal for Employment & Support Allowance they will lose out and potentially be going without their 'transitionally protected amount' until an appeal is decided; it could represent a massive drop in income for months.
All 425,000 claimants are however being short - changed in terms of justice. When it came to the August 2011 riots no time was lost in bringing offenders before the courts in round the clock justice sessions but the same doesn't apply to a benefit claimant waiting months to go to court to get what they are in so many cases owed.
Atos will be paid, the DWP will be paid, the Tribunal judiciary and panel members will be paid but the claimant goes without; often giving up in despair at a system that grinds relentlessly slowly whenever it comes to someone on benefits.
It's worth mentioning that cash starved advice agencies paid under the legal aid scheme due to be abolished for benefits help from April 2013 also go without because they can't claim a derisory fixed fee of £150 for the hours of work spent on an appeal case until the case can be closed.
You can see why the assessment phase suits government very nicely.
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Post by nickd on Nov 20, 2012 0:10:19 GMT 1
How many on incapacity benefits make it on to the Work Programme? The key to endemic worklessness? (Referrals)
(June 2011 - February 2012)
Incapacity benefit related
4,040 ESA ex IB
2,610 JSA ex IB
Employment & Support Allowance only
37,600 ESA
Voluntary participation groups
9,240 ESA
4,120 IB/IS
57,610 Total
(Attachments)
Incapacity benefit related
3520 ESA ex IB
2250 JSA ex IB
Employment & Support Allowance only
35,410 ESA
Voluntary participation groups
7,010 ESA
2,220 IB/IS
Total 50,410
Government's media promoted claim is to tackle 'endemic worklessness which they continually associate with claimants on longer - term incapacity benefit. The above figures show how many have been 'referred' and how many 'attached' to the Work Programme. A referral is just what it says, some pen - pusher referring someone to the programme and the attachments are those who are well 'attached' to it; it's from here that great things happen as the claimant; having been through the ESA assault course is next exposed to a the wonders of the Work Programme, no doubt attending endless sessions and re-writing CV's which more and more employers reject in preference to a standardised application form.
Let's not be cynical though, let's home in on all those thousands having an incapacity benefit history who will have been attached to the Work Programme. Bear in mind we're talking about 1.9 million incapacity claimants when the assessment programme started you may expect thousands upon thousands to be firmly glued to a Work provider by now:
You will be disappointed
An abysmal figure of just 7,990
Of which 2,220 were participants who put their name forward in preference to being press - ganged in to the programme.
2250 - JSA/IBS 3520 - ESA/IB 2220 - IB/IS (Voluntary Participation)
7990 - Total
research.dwp.gov.uk/asd/asd1/work_programme/wp_release_nov12.pdf
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