Post by nickd on Feb 29, 2012 21:15:04 GMT 1
the Ministry of Justice will soon be asked about
the current number of benefit appeals for 2011/2012
Let's make sure they don't distort the real statistics.
The Tribunal statistics are very relevant to both the welfare reform and legal aid bills. Government seems very reluctant to accept that welfare reforms are leading to an increased number of benefit appeals; - such news would come as an embarrassment to how well their reforms are seen to be working, it would also cast even more doubt over their plans to abolish legal aid for anyone who needs legal help with a benefit appeal. If the legal aid bill is passed it will force many advice agencies such as CAB and law centres to turn even more people away; - they are already facing closure from savage cuts due to reductions in funding from many other sources.
The Ministry of Justice will probably refer to the latest Social Security Tribunal 2011/2012 statistics and tell you that the number of benefit appeals is not rising as people said it would. So let's pre-empt their response and look at the real figures.
The Ministry of Justice may well say..
The total number of social security appeals in 2009/2010 was 339,200 - in 2010/2011 they had increased to 418,500 but the latest figures for 2011/2012 are 211,700 - this would sound good wouldn't it?
But here's a few things we need to be clear about.
The 2011/2012 figure of 211,700 is only a provisional one quoting the 'year to date'. The figures in the Tribunal statistics only deal with the first quarter of 2011 and analyse the months of - July - August - September and October in 2011. The figures do not actually include any from 2012 at all.
Now let's break these appeals down into three key benefits - Disability Living Allowance (DLA) - Employment & Support Allowance (ESA) and Jobseeker's Allowance (JSA) and apply them to each of the years we are looking at. These relate to the number of appeals received by the Tribunals Service
2009/2010
DLA Receipts - 71,700
ESA receipts --126,800
JSA Receipts -- 31,100
2010/2011
DLA Receipts - 79,400
ESA receipts - 197,400
JSA Receipts - 47,000
2011/2012 (these are the ones which may be misquoted)
DLA Receipts - 45,600
ESA Receipts - 101,600
JSA Receipts -- 28,000
All sound marvellous doesn't it? - well no, it's not that good at all.
You have to bear in mind how these figures only relate to those up to October 2011. The Ministry of Justice often quotes quarterly comparisons figures or incomplete years; - it is not an accurate way of showing us what the real figures are likely to be. A more accurate way is to take each of the monthly figures for - July - August - September and October 2011, then divide them by four (to give you the monthly average) and then simply multiply them by 12 to give you a predication over what the annual total will be.
On this basis the annual figures are more likely to be:
2011/2012
DLA Receipts - 83,400
ESA Receipts - 176,100
JSA Receipts -- 45,600
Which is markedly higher than the 'year to date' figures shown in the Tribunal statistics for 2011/2012. If we apply these figures as more representative of the true annual predicted figure for 2011/2012 it can be noted..
When compared with 2009/2010 all of these benefit appeals have increased by the following
DLA - + 11,700
ESA - + 49,300
JSA -- + 14,500
Now let us apply the same methodology to the total number of benefit appeals (using the figures for July - August - September and October 2011 to give monthly averages converted in to an annual prediction . We will also include 2008/2009.
2008/09
242,800
2009/10
339,200
2010/11
418,500
2011/12
365,100
Whilst this may seem to represent a decrease because it is lower than the 418,500 appeals received in 2010/11, it is still up on 2009/2010 and considerably higher than 2008/09.
But let's not forget a few other factors.
The 365, 100 figure is only a prediction, we have yet to see the figures from November 2011 to date.
The 365, 100 figure is well above the 211,700 which is currently shown in the 2011/2012 figures; - remember it is only the year to date.
The number of appeal cases 'outstanding' also needs consideration. Again using averaging over the quarters for 2009/10 and 2010/11 and then averaging the four months of July - August - September and October 2011 you arrive at the following figures.
2009/10
138,800
2010/2011
182,150
2011/12
166,075
The latest figure of 166,075 cases outstanding at any one time is very high. It has only reduced by 16,075 from 2010/11 despite the Tribunal Service taking on many additional judicial panel members, increasing the numbers of hearing venues and even sitting on Saturdays. The outstanding case load figure also represents an increase of 27,275 on 2009/2010. The additional resourcing given to the Tribunals Service is not significantly reducing the outstanding case load. In our own office we have a fair number of cases which have been waiting over a year. The case load outstanding figure is very important because, despite a massive influx of extra resourcing, the figure has not materially decreased. You would need to go back over the years to see when the outstanding casework figure started to accrue; - but what has to be accepted is there are (using averaging) around 166, 075 cases outstanding in addition to the prediction (again using averaging) figure of 365,100 to date, they are all appeals which have been lodged and which are still regarded as 'receipts' in the figures. Add the two together and you end up with 531,175 - although the outstanding case number cannot all be attributed to 2011/2012. It indicates that despite the influx of additional staff, the Tribunals Service is still struggling to cope with the number of receipts.
And yes there's something else you need to know...
Remember these are only the cases which the Tribunals Service has actually received. It has been reported that many Employment & Support Allowance claimants are facing long delays in getting medically assessed by the private contractor ATOS; - until they are assessed, they cannot appeal to the DWP and thus they are not getting anywhere near the Tribunals Service. You also need to bear in mind how the DWP are meant to clear ESA claimants through the assessment phase within 13 weeks, it would be very interesting to see how many claimants are still waiting for an outcome decision; - without which they cannot lodge an appeal with the Tribunals Service.
Link to Tribunal Statistics
www.justice.gov.uk/statistics/tribunals/sscs-stats